Task D — Two Flights
Two flights of 5:00 in 10:00
About this task
Rule: Two flights only. Max 5 minutes per flight. 2 flights in 10 minutes working time.
The Challenge: Only two launches — no margin for error. The first flight decision is critical: launch early into uncertainty, or wait for clear lift and lose seconds? A strong first flight creates a strategic buffer (you can be more patient for the second). A weak first flight means pressure mounts for the second.
Decision factors:
- First flight: launch into unknown conditions or wait for confidence?
- If you maxed first flight, you can wait and observe for the second
- If first flight failed, the second becomes a must-max with time pressure
- Only 2 total attempts means every launch decision is high-stakes
- The sequential dependency: flight 1 outcome directly affects flight 2 strategy
What the data says: High failure rate (28%) with only 15% max rate — the hardest 'guaranteed-format' task. The wide, flat distribution shows true unpredictability. 2,064 entries after merging D and D(1) variants. The two-attempt limit makes recovery nearly impossible.
Score distribution
Score probability vs flight time
Likelihood of achieving a given score based on total flown duration across all rounds of this task.