Task E2 — Poker (15 min)
3 declared flights in 15 min
About this task
Rule: 3 flights to declared time. Pilot chooses target times. Unlimited flights in 15 minutes working time.
The Challenge: The extended 15-minute window allows higher declarations but paradoxically makes the task even harder. Pilots are tempted into aggressive calls (4:00+) because 'there's plenty of time.' The longer window also means conditions can shift dramatically mid-task, invalidating earlier strategy.
Decision factors:
- The extra 5 minutes invites over-declaration — pilots aim for 4-5 minute targets
- 21.9% landing-out rate (highest of any Poker version) confirms excessive risk-taking
- Conditions can change significantly over 15 minutes — initial reads become stale
- More time to retry, but also higher expectations from competitors
What the data says: Far harder than E1 — avg 507 vs 607, failure rate 45% vs 38%. The extra time doesn't help; it hurts. Pilots over-declare and the longer window amplifies volatility. Difficulty 130.9 is among the highest of any task version. Only 64 entries (rarely used).
Score distribution
Score probability vs flight time
Likelihood of achieving a given score based on total flown duration across all rounds of this task.